The problem is actually named after the host of Let’s Make a Deal, Monty Hall. In the show, contestants are faced with picking one option out of three.

If they choose wrong, they lose, but if they choose correctly, they win a prize. In Survivor, Jeff presents Deshawn with three boxes. Two have pictures of skulls inside, whereas one has a picture of a flame. If he picks the flame, he stays in the game.

He picks the first box. However, Jeff reveals the contents of the third box, and then gives Deshawn the option to switch his choice. According to writer Marilyn vos Savant, the correct choice would have been to switch. This is because after picking the first box, the other two have a ⅔ likelihood of being correct. When one of those is eliminated, the other box takes on that ⅔ likelihood.

Survivor is all about vibes, though, so Deshawn sticks with his initial gut feeling and his initial box. It pays dividends when that box turns out to be the fire, but according to theorists and to practice, he should have switched. Regardless, it just goes to show that ⅔ odds still isn’t 100 percent, and sometimes following your gut is the best way to go.

New episodes of Survivor air every Wednesday at 8 p.m. EST on CBS.